GTRI report says India is insulated from Venezuela crisis as trade has collapsed due to long-standing US sanctions.
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Venezuela is expected to have a minimal effect on India’s trade and energy security, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative released on 4th January 2026.
Ajay Srivastava, founder of the research group, stated that India faces a negligible impact because bilateral trade has already dwindled under the weight of existing sanctions. Crude oil imports from Venezuela saw a sharp decline of 81.3 per cent during the 2024–25 financial year, with total bilateral trade remaining marginal.
Historically, India was a major purchaser of Venezuelan crude throughout the 2000s and 2010s. However, commercial ties weakened significantly starting in 2019. To avoid secondary sanctions from the United States, Indian refiners were forced to drastically reduce oil imports and scale back commercial engagements.
Data for the 2024–25 period shows that total imports from Venezuela stood at approximately USD 364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for USD 255.3 million. This represents a steep fall from the USD 1.4 billion recorded in the 2023–24 period. Meanwhile, India’s exports to the South American nation remained modest at USD 95.3 million, primarily driven by pharmaceutical shipments valued at USD 41.4 million.
The report concludes that, given the current low trade volumes, the constraints of sanctions, and the vast geographical distance, the latest developments in Venezuela are unlikely to cause any meaningful disruption to the Indian economy.
SOURCE – BUSINESS STANDARD
