European logistics majors, including DHL, DSV, and Kuehne+Nagel are expected to report higher first-quarter profits, buoyed by the supply chain complexity and freight market turbulence triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. However, analysts caution that while near-term gains look promising, the longer-term economic fallout from the energy shock could weigh heavily on demand through the rest of the year.
Airfreight is emerging as the clear winner in the current environment. Volumes are forecast to grow at a high single-digit rate in the quarter, driven by shippers pivoting away from disrupted sea routes toward faster air alternatives. Jefferies analysts noted that periods of geopolitical turmoil have historically promoted sea-to-air cargo spillover, a dynamic in which DHL holds a structural advantage over its competitors.
Seafreight, by contrast, is showing more modest momentum. Volumes are projected to grow at only a low single-digit pace year on year, weighed down by tough comparisons after shippers aggressively front-loaded cargo ahead of US import tariffs in April 2025, leaving less incremental demand to drive growth in the current period.
For Kuehne+Nagel specifically, Jefferies analysts relayed that management does not anticipate further yield pressure in either sea or air business in the first quarter, reinforcing expectations that earnings have stabilised and are positioned to improve through the year.
Source: Reuters
