Softer demand and recovering capacity moderate air cargo market.
Global air cargo spot rates averaged USD 3.12 per kg in July 2026, up 28% year-on-year, although the pace of growth slowed for the second consecutive month, according to Xeneta. Spot rates declined 6% month-on-month, while global air cargo demand grew 4% year-on-year, compared with 8% growth in June. Capacity supply increased 1% year-on-year, with Xeneta’s dynamic load factor rising two percentage points to 61%. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said the market had entered its traditionally softer seasonal period and that the company expects a weaker second half of 2026, with limited discussion of a peak season among shippers.
Xeneta reported that spot rates from Northeast Asia to Europe fell 13% month-on-month, while rates from Southeast Asia to Europe declined 9%. Spot rates from China to Western Europe dropped 22% to USD 4.15 per kg. Xeneta said the timing coincided with the European Union’s removal of the €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports from July 1, 2026, replacing it with a €3 flat duty per item. The company also said rates into the Middle East remained well above pre-conflict levels despite easing from recent peaks, while AI-related shipments continued to underpin transpacific growth. According to Xeneta, fuel prices, developments in the Middle East and changes to EU e-commerce regulations remain among the factors that could influence the air cargo market in the coming months.
