Logistics provider says freight demand, rather than vessel capacity, will shape the European container market through the remainder of 2026.
Italian container logistics provider Sogese S.r.l. has said freight demand, rather than nominal shipping capacity, is expected to determine how Europe’s container shipping peak season unfolds during the remainder of 2026. In its August 2026 Europe Container Market Update, the company said earlier procurement decisions, prolonged inventory replenishment and selective carrier capacity deployment have spread demand across a wider portion of the year, making operational execution more critical than available vessel capacity.
According to Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance Report, cited in the update, global schedule reliability declined to 62.6% in June, down from 64.5% in May, with vessels arriving an average of 5.3 days behind schedule. The report showed Maersk recording the highest schedule reliability among the largest carriers at 77.1%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 75.6% and MSC at 72.1%, while the Gemini Cooperation alliance achieved 93.4% schedule reliability compared with 53.6% for the Premier Alliance. Sogese said these figures highlight that service reliability increasingly depends on carrier and service selection rather than overall market capacity.
Commenting on the findings, Andrea Monti, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Sogese, said businesses are now being tested on how consistently they execute their logistics strategies rather than how much shipping capacity they can secure. The company also noted that Drewry’s World Container Index reached US$4,639 per 40-foot container on July 9 before easing to US$4,255 by July 30, indicating that freight demand softened more quickly than carriers reduced capacity. Sogese estimates that continued Cape of Good Hope routings, slow steaming and port congestion are reducing the effective availability of global container capacity despite fleet expansion.
The report further stated that importers advanced purchase orders into late second and early third quarters amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, contributing to an 8% increase in imports from Asia through the Port of Rotterdam during the first half of 2026, while overall container throughput remained broadly unchanged because of lower transhipment volumes. Looking ahead, Sogese’s base-case scenario anticipates demand normalising during the fourth quarter, with carriers expected to manage capacity through blank sailings and network adjustments, although the company noted that geopolitical developments and trade policy changes could continue to influence market conditions.
