India is forecast to receive 1.87 million bpd of Russian crude this month, according to provisional Kpler data.
According to trade and refining sources, India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to fall from multi-month highs in November to their lowest point in at least three years in December as refiners look for alternatives to avoid violating Western sanctions.
Due to the conflict in Ukraine, the United States, Britain, and the European Union have increased sanctions against Moscow; Washington’s most recent actions target major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
Russian oil buyers had until November 21 to stop doing business with the two companies.
In addition, within 60 days after the bill of lading, the EU will reject fuel from refineries that received Russian oil after January 21.
Caution results from bank inspection
One of the refining sources stated that Indian state refiners are “extremely cautious” due to bank inspections following the most recent US sanctions and that India is expected to receive between 600,000 and 650,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December.
According to the source, which cited early lifting plans of Indian enterprises, these include imports by Indian Oil and Nayara Energy as well as the delivery of several November-loading cargoes for Reliance Industries.
According to preliminary statistics from Kpler, India is anticipated to acquire 1.87 million barrels per day of Russian crude this month. According to data from trade sources, it bought 1.65 million barrels per day of Russian oil in October, up 2% from September.
According to one trade source, Russian supply remained high in November as many refineries aimed to fill up reserves before the US sanctions deadline. Additionally, the volume surge was linked to the 2026 rule on producing oil products for the EU market using non-Russian oil.
Since they were not permitted to speak to the media, the sources requested anonymity.
Most Indian refiners have stopped purchasing from Russia.
The majority of Indian refiners have ceased purchasing Russian oil, including Hindustan Petroleum, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals.
Bharat Petroleum and Indian Oil, both state-owned, have said that they will only purchase from non-sanctioned companies.
After other suppliers withdrew due to British and EU sanctions, Nayara Energy, which is partially owned by Rosneft, is now processing only Russian oil.
According to Reliance Industries, it loaded Russian oil shipments that were “precommitted” as of October 22. Any shipment that arrives after November 20 will be processed at its refinery, which is designed to manufacture fuels for the local market.
One of Reliance’s two refineries serves only export markets. Reliance is the operator of the largest refining complex in the world.
As refiners took advantage of an arbitrage opportunity, the proportion of US oil in India’s oil imports in October increased to its highest level since June 2024.
Due to New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil, Washington increased taxes on Indian imports to 50%, putting pressure on India to purchase more US energy.
SOURCE – BUSINESS STANDARD
