Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year-on-year in April, reaching USD 3.34 per kg the highest level recorded since October 2022. The sharp rise, reported by industry analysts Xeneta, has unsettled shippers and drawn uncomfortable comparisons to the capacity crisis that gripped global supply chains during the pandemic era.
April’s rate spike was not limited to short-term contracts. Long-term air freight rates valid for over one month also climbed 18%, compounding cost pressures for shippers managing forward commitments. The surge has been largely driven by capacity constraints on routes most affected by the ongoing Middle East conflict, disrupting key air corridors and tightening available lift.
Unlike the Covid-era shock that disrupted global capacity wholesale, the current constraints remain largely regional in nature. However, a separate and more stubborn challenge is emerging on the fuel front. The margin between crude oil and refined jet fuel have now exceeded pandemic-era peaks, creating a cost burden that carriers can neither easily absorb nor pass over.
Despite the turbulence, there are cautious signs of stabilisation. Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw indicated that rate increases are showing signs of easing, even on the corridors most severely impacted by the conflict. As capacity gradually returns to affected routes, market fundamentals are expected to reassert control over air freight pricing in the weeks ahead.
Source: XENETA
