BIMCO expects Suez Canal reroutings to disrupt global trade through 2025, with recovery forecasted by 2026.
BIMCO has updated its forecast, projecting that shipping in the Suez Canal will return to normal by 2026. Reroutings around the Cape of Good Hope, prompted by Red Sea security concerns, are expected to disrupt global trade throughout 2025.
The ongoing political unrest in the region continues to impact vessel traffic, increasing costs and complicating supply chains. BIMCO predicts a weakening supply/demand balance in 2025, followed by potential adjustments in 2026, contingent on a return to the Suez Canal.
Despite falling freight rates, time charter rates have remained 52% higher year-to-date than in 2023. Vessel prices show mixed trends, with newbuilding prices stabilising while second-hand ship values climb, nearing 80% of newbuilding costs. BIMCO anticipates market corrections in 2026 as conditions normalise.
