October air cargo volumes rise 4% YoY, but a sharp Europe-US decline signals cooling demand and pressure on rates into 2026.
Global air cargo markets delivered a surprise in October with a stronger-than-expected 4% year-on-year surge in demand, according to industry intelligence from Xeneta. The growth came despite easing “front-loading” by businesses that previously offset tariff costs and the US de minimis ban.
However, analysts warn the outlook may be turning against carriers and forwarders as market momentum shifts in favour of shippers.
“The market is definitely starting to favour shippers more than it has for the past few years,” said Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer, Xeneta.
Rates Fall for Sixth Straight Month
October marked the sixth consecutive monthly decline in global spot rates:
- Spot rates fell –3% YoY to USD 2.58/kg
- Seasonal contract rates dropped -8% YoY to USD 2.31/kg
Contract prices sliding faster than spot rates reflects a cautious outlook among freight forwarders.
Europe–North America Weakness Seen as a ‘Bellwether’
The most troubling signal came from the Transatlantic corridor, where:
- Demand slumped -6% YoY
- Spot rates grew only +4% YoY, sharply down from +23% earlier in 2025
This route is less affected by US de minimis policy, suggesting a broader cooling in global trade.
Van de Wouw called the drop “a harsh signal”.
Supply Outpaces Demand
In October, capacity grew +5%, outpacing demand growth for the second time this year, a classic indicator of softening markets.
Peak Season Momentum Softens
Across major trade lanes:
- Asia Pacific → Europe demand rose +11% (vs. +16% last year)
- Spot rates rose +5% (vs. +9% last year)
Typhoon Ragasa and China’s Golden Week holiday were factored out to normalise data.
China E-commerce to Europe Surges
China’s cross-border e-commerce continues to reshape flows:
- Europe-bound e-commerce volumes jumped +62% YoY
- China’s general e-commerce sector grew +18%
Conversely, China-to-US e-commerce shipments fell for the fifth month, down -34% YoY, though recovering from a -49% dip in June.
Source: Xeneta
