November witnessed a +5 percent YoY spike in global air cargo demand, propelled by a surge in e-commerce volumes from Hong Kong and China, notably led by Shein and Temu.
While China to the US and Europe spot rates soared, averaging USD 4.46 per kg and USD 3.96 per kg, respectively, concerns arise regarding the sustainability of this growth. Xeneta’s analysis underscores the market’s dependence on e-commerce, challenging traditional peak season norms.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, highlights the anomaly, cautioning against overoptimism, attributing the boost to November 2022’s disappointing figures and e-commerce’s influence.
While rates are pushed up locally, the global air cargo market’s fundamental outlook for 2024 remains cautious. Sustainability concerns linger as the surge is primarily linked to lower-value goods, posing profitability challenges for airlines and forwarders. The broader market continues to reflect weak demand, signaling potential hurdles despite the short-term uptick in e-commerce-driven volumes.
