Air cargo demand rose 2.9% in September, marking seven months of growth as shifting trade routes reshape global freight flows.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest global air cargo market data, revealing a 2.9% year-on-year growth in cargo demand for September 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month of sustained expansion. International operations performed slightly better, with a 3.2% increase.
Meanwhile, global cargo capacity rose 3.0% compared to September 2024, driven by increased belly capacity from growing passenger traffic. International capacity rose by 4.4% year-on-year.
Commenting on the results, Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said:
“Air cargo demand grew 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of overall growth. Beneath the surface, we are seeing significant shifts in trade patterns as U.S. tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions—take effect. While demand between North America and Asia has declined for five months, strong growth within Asia and across routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East is more than compensating.”
Walsh stressed that despite fears of shrinking global trade, air cargo continues adapting to evolving market demands.
Market Context
Key underlying factors shaping performance include:
- Global goods trade rose 7% year-on-year in August.
- Jet fuel prices increased 5.4% in September due to tightening diesel markets.
- Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened, with the PMI rising to 51.3 for a second straight month.
- New export orders inched up to 49.6, still signalling caution under tariff pressure.
Detailed September Performance (Year-on-Year)
| Region | Demand (CTK) | Capacity (ACTK) | Load Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | +14.7% | +7.4% | 44.4% |
| Asia-Pacific | +6.8% | +4.8% | 49.3% |
| Europe | +2.5% | +4.4% | 51.3% |
| Middle East | +0.6% | +5.5% | 45.4% |
| Latin America | -2.2% | +3.1% | 35.2% |
| North America | -1.2% | -1.5% | 39.4% |
Africa led all regions with 14.7% growth, supported by strong Asia-bound flows. Asia-Pacific maintained a 6.8% surge, buoyed by intra-Asia demand. Weakness persisted on North America–Asia lanes.
Trade Lane Highlights
| Corridor | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Europe–Asia | +12.4% | 31 months of growth |
| Within Asia | +10.0% | 23 months of growth |
| Africa–Asia | +9.6% | 3 months of growth |
| Middle East–Asia | +4.6% | 7 months of growth |
| North America–Europe | +2.6% | 20 months of growth |
| Asia–North America | -3.5% | Declining for 5 months |
| Middle East–Europe | -4.6% | 2 months of decline |
| Within Europe | -1.1% | 2 months of decline |
Global freight volumes remained resilient on most major corridors, with Asia driving momentum.
Human Impact
Behind the numbers:
- Manufacturers are cautiously optimistic.
- Retailers are adjusting sourcing across Asia.
- Airlines are managing rising fuel costs.
- Freight forwarders are shifting trade lanes to avoid tariff pressure.
The evolving landscape has forced logistics teams worldwide to adopt smarter routing, multimodal strategies, and warehouse flexibility.
Looking Ahead
With shifting tariffs, new sourcing patterns, and stabilising manufacturing sentiment, analysts expect air cargo to remain volatile but adaptive.
Walsh concluded:
“Instead of unwinding, global supply chains are evolving and air cargo continues to prove its agility.”
September’s performance underscores a central truth: in times of uncertainty, air cargo delivers.
Source: IATA
