January air cargo growth slows to 2% YoY, as Lunar New Year and demand drop hit tonnage.
Global air cargo tonnage saw a much slower increase in January 2025, with a modest 2% year-on-year (YoY) rise, significantly down from the previous year’s 11% growth. This downturn is attributed to several factors, including tougher year-on-year comparisons, reduced e-commerce volumes, and a shorter-than-usual post-Lunar New Year (LNY) slowdown in East Asia.
In week 5 (January 27 to February 2), tonnages dropped 12% week-on-week (WoW), following a brief recovery after air cargo’s usual end-of-year slump. A 33% decline in chargeable weight from Asia Pacific – driven by the closure of factories for the LNY holidays – was a key factor. The 2025 LNY occurred on January 29, earlier than last year’s February 10, complicating comparisons.
While Asia Pacific tonnage suffered, regions like Central & South America (CSA), Africa, and North America saw slight WoW increases. The global tonnage drop was felt across all major regions, with Asia Pacific seeing the steepest decline at -29%, followed by Europe (-7%) and North America (-1%).
Despite the challenges, January’s overall tonnage showed a slight increase from Asia Pacific (+3%), North America (+5%), and CSA (+2%) YoY. Global air cargo rates also saw a rise, with average rates up 7% YoY, driven by strong increases from MESA, Asia Pacific, and Africa.
However, the month’s average spot rates remained flat in week 5, though spot rates from regions like MESA and Africa showed strong gains compared to last year. Meanwhile, concerns about the suspension of China’s access to the U.S. ‘section 321’ Customs-free process may further impact the China-US e-commerce market in the coming weeks, with unclear effects on air cargo trends.
Source: EXIM news
